First, we're not permittted to be there. Several years ago, Arab League secretary Amr Moussa has ruled out western military intervention to fight Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Moussa emphatically stated that there is no way they'll repeat the experience of Afghanistan, even after the explosive airline parcels targeted the U.S. At the time, he asked for assistance from all Arab countries in the Arabian Gulf, due to its critical strategic location. He had no idea the current uprising against the government would be so widespread and intense.
Second, the U.S. decided to exert diplomtic pressure to encourage vulnerable others in the Arab League to come to Yemen's aid. Moussa said that he would hold meetings and visit a number of Arab countries to discuss how they can support Yemen in this crucial juncture. The U.S. can diplomatically "sweeten" his pleas. But, that was before the pervasive and unexpected uprisings throughout the Arab world. There were questionable reports of the West thinking about military intervention to destroy AQAP in Yemen after the airplane mail bomb plots, and the U.S. denied these reports and assured Moussa that there would be NO military intervention.
Third, America simply doesn't need to send in armored Marine divisions. True, the U.S. now perceives AQAP as more dangerous than the main Al-Qaeda group of Bin Laden. But, America planned to support Yemeni authorities financially and technically. We learned quickly how to fight asymmetric warfare.
Fourth, we have learned to fight the shadow war; insurgent weaklings can beat superpower giants. It's called asymmetric warfare. Behind closed doors with Yemeni officials, a harmonious decision was made to send in military advisers, surveillance satellites and drone aircraft, undercover CIA and DOD intelligence-gathering agents, and small special ops teams for surgical strikes against AQAP. No news media reporters were embedded in these clandestine operations.
OSINT NEWS believes we can't and won't spread our main battlefield soldiers thinner in the war against radical Islam. In asymmetric warfare, whoever said a super power can't become lop-sided, too. Undercover CIA and DOD intelligence officers, stealthy raids by small special ops teams, Yemeni-approved U.S. air force support, secretive predator and reaper drone patrols, and supplying Yemeni troops with weaponry and training would work better than massive armored Marine divisions.
Fifth, the Domino Effect is real in this part of the world. Yemen's struggle with the AQAP cries out for other Arab peninsular states to enter the struggle. Diplomacy with these vulnerable Arab states is critical. Moussa is in a position to persuade them to put boots on Yemeni soil. If Yemen falls, they're next.
Robert Morton, M.Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association For Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes about the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). A portion of the Ad revenues from this site is donated to the AFIO. His ideas are his own and do not represent any organization he's a member of. We welcome your ideas and comments on OSINT. Contact us on the secure Bpath Mail Form.
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